dns cache poisoning

DNS cache poisoning -- residual risk

I was looking for a way to calculate the probability of success of the cache poisoning attack against a DNS server implementing source port randomization. This paper describes the methodology. There are a few questions I don't have an answer for yet.

1. When I try to reproduce their results (Table 1) I get (slightly) different outcome. I wonder why. My source code is here.
65536 | 4 | 10427 | 0.500000
65536 | 200 | 227 | 0.500000
4294967296 | 4 | 683344693 | 0.500000

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